The smart cities movement is about, at its core, the opportunity to improve urban life through technology. Normally, we dive into details about how that is happening. Today, we’ve taking a step back, since there are some broader trends that suggest that the meeting between urban life and technology is so important to the future of humanity. We hope that you’ll be as inspired as we are.
Key trends in urbanization and the concentration of tech development
Let’s start with the broadest trends we’ve identified.
At the foundational level, we are witnessing, of course, an ongoing trend towards increased urbanization (about 56% of the world’s population today, projected to increase to approximately 68% by 2050).
The density of cities makes them natural test-beds for new technologies, business models.
Tech talent continues to concentrate in (a handful of) cities1
Increased urbanization has been correlated with a shift from agricultural employment to employment in manufacturing/industry/services. While the shift to urban areas has been accelerating rapidly throughout the 20th century, there are arguments that some new factors are at play today.
Here are some intriguing thoughts from Venkatesh Rao’s Breaking Smart newsletter [emph. ours]. The argument here points to the increasing relevance of cities, as wealth-generation machines, as civilizations become more complex. Bear with us :)
“The logic of empire is the logic of mercantilism: the idea that all wealth derives from land via relatively simple technology, and that cities are merely consumption centers for surpluses, adding little of real, necessary value.
If that were true, however, cities would not keep recovering from barbarian sackings, great fires, plagues, and other disasters. They would not periodically shape the fates of territories far bigger than themselves.
The logic of city-state polities is the logic Schumpterian creative destruction: the idea that all wealth derives from innovation-driven change in the technological sophistication with which the world's resources are used. [emph. ours]
The higher the technological level in a civilization, and the higher the automation level, the more the city-state view of wealth and value is the correct one, and the more wrong the imperial-mercantile one gets.” [Note: One of our relatives is a big blockchain advocate and insisted that we point out the opportunities that technology provides for local currency development.]
Urbanization as a response to volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity
In addition to these very broad trends, there may be some shorter-term political and social reasons that urban areas are growing in influence and importance in the world today. Again, from Breaking Smart [emph. again ours]:
“The most fertile mental model of a city-state polity is based on a computing metaphor. City-state polities are a phase of history where the environment favors what information security types call data-based security over perimeter-based security. This happens when the volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA) in the environment is high, as it is today. Under such conditions, it is easier to protect things of intrinsic value, no matter how and where they move or live, rather than to defend boundaries around spaces containing things.”
The Story of Humanity and the Story of Technology
So, bringing it all together: (1) the increasing complexity of civilization is making cities more relevant as engines of wealth creation and tech innovation… and, (2) more recent political and economic “VUCA” may be compounding those tendencies.
The “Smart Cities” scene and moniker is really, then, a way of focusing folks on the convergence between wealth creation/tech innovation/urbanization. Or, to put it another way, Cities are where the Story of Humanity and the Story of Technology are merging most meaningfully.
A reviewer asks, though: “When is the story of technology not the story of humanity?”
We agree, as our good reviewer notes, that technology has always had a huge impact on the human story--from stone tools to shoes to fire to eyeglasses to the factories and computers he notes. What’s changed the increasingly central prominence of the technology story. It’s become near-impossible to tell the story of humanity and/or to talk about its future without focusing on the role of technology. This is, of course, due to the raw impact of technology but also due to the pace of technological change: We can’t look away, can’t act treat innovation in a matter-of-fact way--we know that these disruptions are defining how we live and who we are, and that it’s quite difficult for us to be ‘proactive’ in the face of these trends.
So, cities are growing and becoming more critical to the ‘bets’ humanity places on its own future. And, tech is becoming more central to how people see themselves and their place in the world. “Smart Cities” as a scene is interesting since it focuses our attention on a nexus of multiple critical changes going on today.
Later, we’ll take this further, and look at how this ‘smart cities nexus’ relates to other nexus points for tech and civilization. That post will be about some more general trends re: how bits and atoms move across the world and/or are stored. And cities—no surprise here— play a key role in that story.
1 For relative tech talent scoring data, including some fun graphics, check out this CBRE page (Austin, by the way, ranks as the #6 US market for tech talent in this report.).